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Vol 9, No. 1 Jan - Mar 2014
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India−China
Relations: Conflicting Trends
Manmohan
Singh,
Prime Minister of India.
India and China in the New
Era*
...
Above all, India and China
need a stable, secure and prosperous Asia Pacific region. The centre of
gravity of global opportunities and challenges are shifting to this region.
In the coming decades, China
and India, together
with the United States,
Japan, Korea
and the ASEAN Community, will be among the largest economies in the world.
While this region embodies unparalleled dynamism and hope, it is also one
with unsettled questions and unresolved disputes. It will be in our mutual
interest to work for a cooperative, inclusive and rule-based security
architecture that enhances our collective security and regional and global
stability.
*Speech delivered by the Prime Minister, Shri Manmohan Singh at the
Central Party School in Beijing, China, on October 24, 2013
C.
V. Ranganathan
former Ambassador of India to China and to France. Former Convener of the
National Security Advisory Board
Meaningful Cooperation on
Afghanistan- a Test of the Relationship
The approaching end game in Afghanistan,
marked by the withdrawal of American and NATO troops, draws attention to
the urgency of the pursuit of cooperation in the security sphere between
India, China, Pakistan, and other neighbors of
that country. Even as various diverse fields in bilateral relations between
India and China continue to grow the issue of constructive and meaningful
cooperation with regard to the future of Afghanistan should be considered
an important test of the quality of the relationship, having a vital
bearing on the peace, stability, as well as the economic and social
development of the Indian subcontinent.
Nalin Surie: former Ambassador of India to China,
High Commissioner to the UK and former Secretary in the Ministry of
External Affairs
Cooperation, Competition
and Peaceful Confrontation
The India−China
relationship is already not a zero sum game. The potential for
collaboration to mutual benefit though is much greater whether from the
perspective of learning from each other's socio economic programs and
successes, for bilateral economic relations or cooperation in regional and
international programs. However, for this to be realised in greater and
greater measure will require the development of much greater mutual trust
and a mindset change, especially in our largest neighbour.
Srikanth Kondapalli: Professor in Chinese Studies at the Jawaharlal Nehru
University, New Delhi
Simultaneous Rise of China
and India - The Way Ahead
The above
brief depiction of the bilateral and multilateral interactions between
India and China suggest that the new leadership in China views relations
with India as being important but, overall, subservient to its equations
with Washington. As China became the second largest economy in the world in
2010, and is poised to overtake the USA in GDP terms, Beijing is concerned
with the possible negative outcomes of this ‘power transition’ – much like
Germany and Japan faced in the 1930s and 1940s. For instance, Beijing has expressed concerns
about USA’s ‘rebalancing in the Asia-Pacific’, although it is the major beneficiary
of the G-2. In order to cushion its rise further in a sustained manner in
the international and regional orders, China is working momentarily with
other emerging countries on issue-based coordination. India in turn needs
to evolve policies which are based on its own self-interest; make choices
that contribute to its capacity build-up; make its territorial integrity
more secure through conventional and nuclear deterrence; make active
efforts to re-shape the regional and international environment conducive to
its rise and avoid being marginalised at a minimum, as well as protect and
expand its rightful place in the international system through an inclusive
and democratic architecture.
________________________________
ARTICLES
Jagannath Panda: Research
Fellow and Centre Coordinator (East Asia) at Institute for Defence Studies
and Analysis (IDSA), New Delhi
Maritime
Silk Road and the India−China Conundrum: From the South China Sea to
the Indian Ocean
India–China maritime
dynamics are witnessing new developments and balance of power politics.
Beijing’s economic and maritime posture continues to emerge as a challenge
for India. In fact, underlying China’s Maritime Silk Road strategy is an
orderly diplomatic, economic, and maritime quest for power that India must
take note of. A core aim behind this strategy is to re-brand China as an
economic, political and maritime power in IOR as well as in the
neighbouring region. In official parlance, this enterprise is intended to
integrate Beijing’s existing levels of cooperation in the region, and to
look beyond. As Hua Chunying,
spokesperson of the Chinese Foreign Ministry, stated on 13 February 2014,
“This is an initiative and idea of cooperation, which will help integrate
all the on-going cooperation programmes, especially those in connectivity
with the concept and spirit of the ancient Silk Road.”. India and other
countries need to take note and respond to this discourse.
Obja
Borah Hazarika:
Assistant
Professor, Department of Political Science, Dibrugarh
University, Assam
Evolving Dynamics of
Federalism and Foreign Policy in India: Engagement of States in
External Affairs
Although,
the central government in India has been constitutionally empowered to
decide on foreign affairs, this article has attempted to portray that
sub-national units have influenced and affected external engagements to a
certain extent. The central government as well as foreign audiences have
acknowledged the role of the states of India in external engagements and
have often included them in discussions and negotiations relating to
foreign affairs. Sub-national diplomacy has taken varied manifestations in
India. First, states have embarked on economic diplomacy with foreign
audiences. Secondly, states sharing an international border have influenced
neighbourhood policy and thirdly, regional parties, which have served as
coalition partners at the centre have often leveraged their status to exert
pressure on the centre in certain foreign policy decisions. The centre,
being the final authority on external affairs in India, must continue to
conduct foreign policy with an aim to secure the national interest of the
country as well as to ensure that the legitimate interests and concerns of
the states are adequately accommodated.
Reshmi
Kazi:
Associate
Fellow at the Institute of Defence
Studies and Analyses, New
Delhi.
India’s Nuclear Doctrine: A
Study of its Tenets
The aim of India’s nuclear deterrence
capability has been to safeguard itself against blackmail and coercive
diplomacy of adversaries. Its doctrinal principles of minimum
nuclear deterrence and NFU are consistent with India’s declaration of a modest
nuclear weapons policy. The official announcements, in the aftermath of the May
1998 tests indicated that India has set out on a pragmatic course of action.
Sixteen years after the tests, the Indian government’s policies reflect
this approach substantially.
The
CCS in January 2003, proposed certain modifications in the draft doctrine. The
committee made clear that in future if any biological and chemical weapons
are used to attack India then it would retain the option of retaliating
with nuclear weapons. This did receive criticism from some quarters. Such
an explicit link can reduce the deterrence value of nuclear weapons and may
enhance the value of chemical weapons.
Having
failed in its efforts for decades to achieve global nuclear disarmament, India had to
reluctantly resort to go down the nuclear path. India remains committed to
pursue disarmament as the ultimate guarantor of peace amongst nations.
Rajiv Sikri: former Secretary, Ministry of External Affairs,
and a former Ambassador of India to Kazakhstan
Challenge and Strategy:
Rethinking India's Foreign Policy
For some
time now, there has been a buzz about India’s growing role in the world and a widespread feeling that India
must play a much larger global role. Today, this feeling has become far more
acute. It is important, then,
that there should be greater, and more widespread, awareness of foreign
policy challenges faced by India, as well as a deeper understanding of the stakes and options for
India’s foreign policy. The public needs to be more knowledgeable about
foreign affairs, which cannot be the concern only of those who
exercise power in New Delhi. It is something in which every citizen should
be involved. It is also essential that there should be a vibrant and
constructive debate, especially involving the young, on where
we are
headed and why, because unless there is public support our foreign
policy
will not be successful. Some recent incidents pertaining to our relations
with Sri
Lanka and Bangladesh where the Chief Ministers of Tamil Nadu and
West
Bengal respectively forced the hand of the Central Government illustrate
this
point. I am glad that the BJP manifesto talks about having a “Team India”
that
brings together the Prime Minister and the Chief Ministers of States.
My
conversation with you today is a small effort to create this awareness, perhaps stimulate your
imagination and set you thinking.
___________________________________
BOOK
REVIEWS
C.
MAHAPATRA: Professor
and Chairperson, Centre for Canadian, US and Latin American Studies, School
of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi
Mohammad Badrul Alam (Ed.),
Contours of India’s Foreign
Policy: Changes and Challenges
(New Delhi, Reference Press, 2014), Pages: 325, Price: Rs. 975.00
Rajeev Agarwal:
Research Fellow, Institute of Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi
PR Kumaraswami (Ed.),
Persian Gulf 2013: India’s
Relations with the Region, (New
Delhi, Sage Publications, 2014), Pages: 305, Price: Rs 795.00
Venkat Lokanathan: Assistant
Professor and Coordinator of the Master’s Programme, Department of
Political Science, St. Joseph’s College, Bangalore
Chandra, Vishal (ed.),
India’s Neighbourhood: The Armies
of South Asia, (New
Delhi, Pentagon Press, 2013) Pages: 167, Price: 795
PUSHPITA DAS: Associate
Fellow, Institute of Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi
David Kilcullen,
Out of the Mountains: the Coming
Age of the Urban Guerrilla, (New
Delhi, Oxford University Press, 2013), Pages: 342, Price: Rs. 1,317.12
Sheel
Kant Sharma:
Former
Ambassador of India to Austria, Former Secretary General, SAARC
P. P. Shukla (Ed.),- India US Partnership -
Asian Challenges and Beyond, (New Delhi, Wisdom Tree,
2014), Pages: 208, Price: Rs. 716.00
BALAKRISHNA SHETTY: Former
Ambassador of India to Senegal, to Bahrain and to Sweden
Rumel Dahiya (ed.), Review of
Developments in the Gulf Region, Pentagon Press, (2014), New
Delhi, Pages: 210, Price: Rs. 695
_____________________________________
Compendium of
Contributions
Published in
Volume 8, 2013
|
_____________________________________
Vol 9, No. 2 Apr - Jun 2014
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DEBATE
'Indo-Pacific':
An Emerging Geopolitical Construct
India’s
Interests, Stakes and Challenges
SANJAY SINGH:
Former Secretary, Ministry of
External Affairs, and, Former Ambassador of India to Iran
Indo-Pacific – A Construct
for Peace and Stability
The
emergence of India in the 21st century completes the creation of a composite
region which could best be described by the term ‘Indo-Pacific’
As the
global fulcrum of power shifts further towards Asia, it would also bring
about change in the dynamics within the Indo-Pacific region. Taking
cognisance of this, we would need to work towards creating a security
construct, and an economic architecture that leverages the civilizational linkages to expand cooperation and build
partnerships across the Indo-Pacific. India naturally will be an important
participant in the process.
G. V. C. NAIDU: Professor at the
Centre for Indo-Pacific Studies, School of International Studies,
Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi
'Indo-Pacific' as a New
Template of Analysis
The Indo-Pacific also
offers enormous scope for regional multilateralism to play a more important
role than it has so far. Once it is recognised
that economic cooperation, shared prosperity, and security challenges are
no more sub-regional in nature but span the entire region, the Indo-Pacific
will be better appreciated. Thus, the Indo-Pacific needs to be viewed in
the larger perspective of offering more opportunities for cooperation than
competition. Moreover, it is a reflection of the rapidly changing
geopolitical reference points. Thus, instead of looking at the Indo-Pacific
idea with skepticism, it should be welcomed and promoted.
RAGHAVENDRA MISHRA:
Research fellow, the National Maritime
Foundation (NMF), New Delhi.
India and
'Indo-Pacific': Involvement rather than Entanglement
While the
Pacific pole of the Indo-Pacific is important, the primacy of the Indian
Ocean in the national strategic calculus is far more critical due to energy
dependency on the Middle East, increasing economic linkages with Africa,
and the security of major sea lines of communication passing through the
western Indian Ocean. In conclusion, the Indian strategic policy framework
should factor the nuances of emerging multi-polarity, and a deepening of
‘vertical and horizontal intermeshing’ brought about by the globalisation
process. While the stance of ‘strategic autonomy’ remains inviolate, the
tenets of maintaining equidistance and balance among the power centres may
prove to be a constraint. The simultaneous management of mutually opposing
paradigms across the strategic threads of politics–diplomacy−economics−security
could be best served by a ‘functional transactional approach’ instead of a
rigid straight-line, single point of departure policy.
MONISH TOURANGBAM:
Assistant
Professor at the Department of Geopolitics and International Relations,
Manipal University, Manipal.
Indo-Pacific
and the Practice of Strategic Autonomy
What makes
the Indo-Pacific construct appealing to Indian policymakers and the strategic
community is that it gives ample scope for the practice of India’s
strategic autonomy. It gives space for it to drive the emerging debates as
a more direct stakeholder rather than being seen as a co-opted partner in
America’s rebalancing strategy in the Asia-Pacific region. While the term
‘strategic autonomy’ needs to be defined based on India’s capabilities and
aspirations, it will augur well for India’s own interests to take into
confidence other countries in the region (besides the major powers)
regarding the viability of this new geopolitical and geo-economics
construct. India’s rising capabilities and a sober analysis of its
strategic autonomy denotes India’s ability to take foreign policy steps
commensurate with its national interests. This includes striking
partnerships and coalitions as and when it suits India’s priorities of
balancing uninterrupted internal development amidst a stable and secure
external environment in the Indo-Pacific region.
R. S. YADAV: Chairman, Department
of Political Science, Kurukshetra University, Kurukshetra
'Indo-Pacific': Likely to be Peripheral for India
... India’s interests
in the Indo-Pacific region seem to be limited in terms of both its foreign
policy priorities and its lack of capability as a major power. Though it is
making progress in attaining the status of a rising power, yet it has to
establish such a claim through a threefold manifestation in the form of its
hard power position; its soft power status; and its demonstrative
capabilities. Besides, Indian interests are more or less limited towards
its immediate and extended neighbourhood. ...
In such a context,
India’s stakes in the Indo-Pacific region are not much. While it may
continue to link up this area, inhabited by people of Indian origin, in terms
of socio-cultural ties in no way would it should associate itself
with security issues. India does not face many challenges in this region.
This region is likely to remain peripheral for its foreign policy outlook
and orientation in the near future.
ARVIND KUMAR: Professor of Geopolitics and International
Relations, Manipal University, Manipal.
Challenges to Indo-Pacific
Security Architecture: Emerging Role for India
... India
should play an active role in seeking to address the challenges to the creation
of a new and acceptable Indo-Pacific security architecture. Over the years,
the aspirations and ambitions of India have grown. It has been acknowledged
as a predominant power in South Asia, and an emerging power in the whole of
Asia. Its desire to be a leading power in the Indian Ocean Rim cannot be
questioned. However, India cannot shy away from assuming responsibilities
and playing a more proactive and positive role, especially if it desires to
be an influential player in Asian and world affairs. India’s strategic
orientations need to be adjusted to go beyond the Indian Ocean region to
the Pacific Rim.
A. VINOD
KUMAR:
Associate
Fellow, The Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi.
'Indo-Pacific':
India Will be a Fringe Player
...
[I]nclusion of the IOR in the Indo-Pacific
paradigm only underlines the coming future of great powers attempting to
spread their writ in this expanse. Already reeling under continental
security challenges, a looming economic crisis, and a tardy defence modernisation
process, India will need to toil in the coming years to sustain whatever
leverage it already has. While economic considerations will be a driving
factor in India’s effort to enhance cooperative relations with major actors
in the Pacific, the expectation is that it will be a mere fringe player in
the strategic dimensions of Indo-Pacific for some time to come.
_____________________________________
ARTICLES
Pinak
Ranjan Chakravarty:
Former Secretary, Ministry of External Affairs and
former High Commissioner of India to Bangladesh and Ambassador to Thailand
India’s Foreign Policy
in the Neighbourhood
The new
Indian government, backed by a majority in the Lok Sabha, will be in a position
to take bold initiatives in the domain of foreign policy. An early signal
of this was the invitation to SAARC leaders to attend the swearing–in
ceremony of Prime Minister Modi. .It was an adroit move, with a
strong potential to pay future dividends in India’s neighbourhood policy.
It was also, perhaps, the first step to catapulting Prime Minister Modi
from being a charismatic provincial leader to a global statesman.
India’s
journey to becoming a major power has begun. Though a long haul, this historic
transformation will be completed in this century, marking India’s much
awaited tryst with destiny..
Sadhana Relia, Arabinda
Mitra and T. Ramasami: Head of the International Cooperation (Multilateral / Regional);
Head of the International Cooperation (Bilateral); and (till
recently) Secretary to the Government of India at the Ministry of Science
and Technology respectively
Science and Technology Perspectives for India’s
Foreign Policy
The
soft power of science and technology in public diplomacy in the global
knowledge economy could well become a handy tool. Science diplomacy offers
itself as a tool to reckon with for India’s foreign policy on the basis of
our scientific and technological strength. The foreign policy of India
could include building strategic Science, Technology, and Innovation
alliances for the country with highly innovative but small economies. The
Indian science sector seems to be ready now than ever before for this
win-win formula.
The article is based on a lecture on the subject
delivered by Dr. T. Ramasami, at the
regular meeting of the Association of Indian Diplomats on 22 April
2014 at New Delhi.
Ashok Chawla: Chairman of the Competition Commission
of India and former Finance
Secretary
Global Business and Competition Law in
India
Competition law and policy in India is
emerging as a tool to enhance economic development, promote competition and
protect consumers in India. In order to give impetus to the evolutionary
phase of competition law and policy in India, the government of India is
considering wide-ranging amendments to the Act and also a National
Competition Policy. The National Competition Policy aims to specifically
deal with policy distortions and impediments that hinder healthy competition.
Further, CCI hopes that its pro-active role in India in uncovering cartels
and other anti-competitive agreements would go a long way in encouraging
fair market practices, deepening competition in markets and contributing to
economic growth with equity.
The article is based on a lecture on the subject
delivered by the author at the regular meeting of the Association of Indian
Diplomats on 21 May 2014 at New Delhi.
RAJARAM PANDA: Former
Senior Fellow at the Institute for Defence Studies and Analysis, New Delhi
and presently, a Japan Foundation Fellow, at Reitaku
University, Kashiwa, Chiba Prefecture, Japan
India–Japan Relations: Dawn
of a New Relationship?
India and
Japan are both important players in Asian political scene. During the Cold
War era, ideological differences and alignments perhaps prevented both
countries from closely honing their economic and strategic
complementarities. After India liberalised its economic policies in the early
1990s, this equation changed noticeably, and
moved towards a stronger relationship in economic and strategic domains.
Though the growth momentum was not at the desired level - as compared to
India’s economic engagement with, for example, China, South Korea and
Australia - recent political changes in both the countries is expected to
pave the way towards greater cooperation. Moreover, the strategic factor
seems to have emerged as the prime driver in the bilateral ties between the
two countries.
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BOOK
REVIEWS
VINAY KAUSHAL: Research
Fellow, Institute of Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi
Rajesh Basrur, Ajay Kumar Das and Manjeet
S. Pardesi (Ed), India’s
Military Modernisation Challenges & Prospects, (New
Delhi, Oxford University Press, 2014), Pages: 311, Price: 950.00
Dalbir
Ahlawat: Centre for Policing,
Intelligence and Counter Terrorism (PICT) Macquarie University, Australia
Soraya Caro
Vergas,
India-Latin America: An Alliance for the Future, New Delhi: Vitasta Publishing Pvt Ltd,
(2014), Pages: xxvii + 248, Price: 740.00
Gunjan Singh:
Research Assistant, Institute of Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi
Rajeswari Pillai Rajagopalan and Daniel A. Porras
(Eds.), Awaiting Launch:
Perspectives on the Draft ICOC for Outer Space Activities; New
Delhi, Observer Research Foundation, 2014, Pages: 275
|
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Vol 9, No. 3 Jul - Sep 2014
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DEBATE
Indian Foreign Policy and
Diplomacy:
The
First few Months of the New Government
BHASKAR BALAKRISHNAN: former Ambassador of India to Greece. and Cuba, and Member
National Security Advisory Board. The views expressed here are personal
India’s Foreign Policy and
the New Government
The coming to power of a majority government led by the BJP and
Prime Minister Narendra Modi opens up new possibilities in India’s foreign policy
and external relations. India’s engagement with the outside world has
lagged during the past five years, hamstrung by a weak coalition government
preoccupied with managing internal cohesion and keeping afloat. This drift
has been apparent in internal governance as well, with decisions on many
key issues left dangling. The negative impact of this on economic growth,
internal security and national morale has greatly diminished India’s role
in the increasingly complicated and competitive global environment.
SATISH CHANDRA: Dean, Centre for National Security and Strategic Studies,
Vivekananda International Foundation (VIF), New Delhi, Former Deputy
National Security Advisor, Permanent Representative of India to UN Offices
in Geneva, Ambassador to the Philippines and High Commissioner to Pakistan.
The Style and Substance of
Modi's Foreign Policy
Prior to his becoming Prime Minister, there was, understandably,
considerable uncertainty about the nature of Narendra Modi’s foreign policy
and the manner in which he would conduct it. While some may have felt that
it would be overly assertive, others may have believed that since he was a
newcomer to the national scene, it would be diffident and tentative.
In a little over five months as Prime Minister, Modi has set to
rest all speculation and provided clear indications of the style and
substance of his foreign policy. In the process, he has demonstrated that
he has taken to foreign policy as a duck takes to water, that he has
definite views in this area, and that he is prepared to boldly act in
keeping with them.
SMRUTI PATTANAIK: Research Fellow, Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA),
New Delhi.
Assessing Modi Government’s
Foreign Policy
‘Continuity’
has been a part of India’s foreign policy and a change in government can
only bring in certain nuances in the conduct of that policy. The political
environment that a new government brings in certainly creates some
expectation from the government, but, any change in the foreign policy
would be contingent upon a change in the strategic environment in which a
state functions. Yet, the BJP led NDA government’s policy is keenly watched
and there is an expectation that this government’s foreign policy would be
different in style and direction, if not in substance
D. SUBHA CHANDRAN: Director,
Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies (IPCS), New Delhi.
The New Government &
India’s Foreign Policy: Old Issues, Firmer Resolve
When the
new government assumed office there was a general expectation, both within
the country and outside, that there would be a new vigour in India’s
foreign policy. Led by Narendra Modi, the new government did take steps to
reinvigorate the external relations. While it is early to judge the intent
and the outcome of the decisions taken so far, a trend can be easily
identified.
Instead of
analysing the efforts taken by the new government in terms of individual
countries, it would be useful to identify the broad parameters under which
the relationships are being pursued and their effectiveness. In this
context, three distinct trends could be identified, in terms of strategies
adopted by the new government – the core, outer core and the periphery.
Rather than looking through the geographic prism of the immediate
neighbourhood, the extended region and the rest, the relationships should
be viewed based on their importance and impact.
CHINTAMANI MAHAPATRA: Professor and Chairperson, Centre for Canadian, US and Latin
American Studies, School for International Studies, JNU, New Delhi
Modi’s Foreign Policy:
Difficult to Theorize, Easy to Understand
First few months of Narendra Modi Government has created a series
of historical milestones in India’s engagement with the international
community. Invitation to all SAARC heads of government for Prime
Ministerial inauguration, first foreign visit by Prime Minister Modi to
Bhutan, sudden postponement of an announced visit to Japan, while going
ahead with a visit to Brazil to attend the BRICS summit, and spectacular
summits with three major powers—Japan, China and the US are undoubtedly new
and unprecedented historical moments in early months of any new government
formation in India.
________________________________
ARTICLES
AJEY LELE: Research Fellow at the Institute of Defence Studies and Analyses,
New Delhi.
Autonomy in Satellite
Navigation Systems: The Indian Programme
India is developing an Indian Regional Navigation Satellite System
(IRNSS) to provide itself and neighbouring countries with the Position
Navigation and Timing (PNT) service. This project is likely to become
operational by 2015. Initially, the system will have seven satellites, and
the number will later go up to 11. IRNSS will be an independent 7
satellite constellation, built and operated by India with indigenous
capability: three in GSO and 4 in non-GSO (inclined 29 degrees with
equatorial plane). India has already launched three satellites of
their constellation and one thereafter, thus making the initial phase of this
system operational.
The IRNSS will provide an absolute position accuracy of
approximately 20 metres throughout India, and within a 2,000 km region
around it. The system is expected to provide two types of services:
one for civilian use, and another as a restricted encrypted service for
specific users.
RANJIT GUPTA: formerly Ambassador of India to Yemen, Venezuela, Oman, Thailand,
Spain, and the Head of the Indian Representation in Taiwan
Recent Developments in West
Asia: Implications for India
... [I]ndia’s national well-being is
heavily dependent on stability in the Gulf region of West Asia.
Unfortunately, volatility here is going to continue increasing in the
foreseeable future. Any major disruption of normalcy in the GCC countries
would result in disastrous consequences for India. What is happening in
Iraq and Syria must not spill over into the GCC countries. However, the
unfortunate reality is that there is nothing that India can say or do to
influence events on the ground. But the least that India can, and must, do
is to convey through actions that we have a keen interest in a strong
relationship with the GCC countries.
TITLI BASU: Researcher at the Institute of Defence Studies and Analyses, New
Delhi
India-Japan relations: An
Enduring Partnership
... [E]volving geopolitical realities are
shaping the India-Japan relationship. While the ‘China threat’ theory and
declining US influence in the region is making Abe explore alternatives
like India, India is expected to pursue its quest for multi-polarity, great
power identity, as well as pragmatically engage with all the important
players in the fast altering security environment to ensure regional peace
and stability so critical for facilitating development. Japan is vital in
India’s Look East, Engage East, and Act East policies. Shared values and a
convergence of interests in the post-Cold War era, as discussed earlier,
has pushed the relationship from one of mutual reluctance to deep-rooted
trust and cooperation.
The future of Regional Cooperation - A South Asian Perspective
The optimist views South Asia
as a half-full glass while the pessimist views it as half-empty. The
realist, however, drinks the water in the glass, and wisely quenches his
thirst. If we remain stuck in a quagmire of despondency over runaway
population growth, grinding poverty of a huge section of the population,
and endless squabbles over historic wrongs, the future looks grim. But, if
we think of the region as overwhelmingly youthful, charged with vitality
and a can-do mentality, well-integrated into the global economy thanks to
its large diaspora, brilliantly positioned
between the energy rich West Asia and the manufacturing hub of East and
South-East Asia, and fully committed to inclusive developmental goals, then
South Asia can be the region of the future.
___________________________________
BOOK
REVIEWS
SITAKANTA MISHRA: Research Fellow, Centre for Air Power Studies, New Delhi
Skand R. Tayal, India and the Republic of Korea:
Engaged Democracies, New Delhi: Routledge, 2014, Pages: xvii+295,
Price: Rs. 795.00.
VIVEK MISHRA: Research Scholar, US Studies Programme, School of International
Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi
Jakub Zajączkowski, et. al. (eds.), India in
the Contemporary World: Polity, Economy and International Relations, New Delhi, Routledge, 2014, Pages: 522,
Price: Rs. 696.50
SHREYA UPADHYAY: Research Scholar, School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru
University, New Delhi
Adesh Pal, India
and Her Diaspora in the South Pacific, (New
Delhi, Creative Books, 2013), Pages: xvii+295,
Price: Rs. 795.00.
SYLVIA MISHRA: Researcher, Indian Council for Research on International Economic
Relations, New Delhi
Rudra Chaudhury, Forged in Crisis: India and the
United States since 1947 (New Delhi:
Harper Collins, 2014), Pages: xii +368
T. V. PAUL: James McGill Professor of International Relations at McGill
University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
T.P. Sreenivasan:
Applied Diplomacy: Through the Prism of Mythology, New Delhi,
Wisdom Tree, 2014. Pages 330; Rs.895.00
|
_____________________________________
Vol 9, No. 4 Oct - Dec 2014
_____________________________________
Download Full Issue
DEBATE
Regional Cooperation in South Asia
The
Present and the Future
SHEEL KANT SHARMA: Former Ambassador of India to Austria, Former Secretary General,
SAARC
The Revitalization of SAARC
The business-as-usual option forces member states and the
secretariat to, willy-nilly, reduce the entire regional exercise to a talk
shop of many levels, the summit being the topmost. At the same time, it is
difficult to abandon this framework since no country would take the blame
for doing it. While there are a number of other regional and sub-regional
options actively considered and debated in think tanks and academia, the
brute fact is that their praxis may not differ much from that of SAARC.
This is because it is the same ministries and personnel in the capitals who
deal with even the new formats, and mostly the same ideas and initiatives
resurface. Take, for example, BIMSTEC. In the past several years, even
BIMSTEC has fallen in a similar groove of a well trodden economic agenda,
trade and infrastructure, investment, banking, etc., and similarly, a
fledgling secretariat fumbling for staff and resources, and not much to
show. The Indian Ocean Rim outfit has even larger membership, but similar
handicaps.
It is, therefore, unrealistic to see alternatives to SAARC emerge
successfully unless very high level interest is taken in a continuous
process which begins with a doable and less ambitious agenda hooked to the
quick delivery of results. In this sense, there is no doubt that bilateral
cooperative processes move faster; but, should that put an end to
regionalism?
RAJIV BHATIA: Former Ambassador of India to Myanmar and to Mexico, High Commissioner
of India to South Africa and to Kenya. Presently the Director General of
Indian Council of World Affairs, New Delhi
India, and SAARC: Some
Future Determinants
South Asia’s environment, both internally and externally, has been
changing rapidly. The growing Chinese presence in South Asia can be seen
both positively¾as ‘a benign extension of
influence’. Or negatively¾ as ‘ingress’ with ‘a
larger strategic purpose’. However, the important point is that it cannot
be ignored. Nor can it be addressed with the mindset of yesterday. A
judicious blend of resilience and the steady accretion of internal strength
seem to be the best pathway for India.
YOGENDRA KUMAR: Former Ambassador of India to Tajikistan and to the
Philippines. Former High Commissioner of India in Namibia.
Re-invigorating SAARC
It is now universally recognised that the regional cooperation in
South Asia is far less developed in comparison to other regions. There is
irony in this situation, as countries in the region have very strong historical
and civilisational links even as they occupy the same economic space. These
regional commonalities were sought to be fleshed out through the
establishment of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation
(SAARC) in December 1985. It was expected that these commonalities would
provide a strong enough basis for significant regional integrationas, indeed, it
was before 1947and for socio-economic progress, thereby strengthening regional
political stability by keeping the negative tendencieslike
backwardness, obscurantism and extremismat bay.
Yet, the sad reality is that other regional organisations, such as
the European Union and the ASEANcomprising an even more diverse group of countrieshave been far more
successful than SAARC. Indeed, the latter could, perhaps, be less
favourably compared even with more recent organisations such as the African
Union or the ECO. As an organisation, SAARC has underperformed throughout
its history, and the level of regional integration is woefully short of its
promise. Even its summits are becoming irregular. Perhaps, the
unsatisfactory level of regional integration can partly be considered as a
contributory factor in the prevailing situation where the region represents
a microcosm of the range of security threats being faced by the world at
large. This reality appears even more distressing, given the considerable
ongoing movement of peoples in South Asia across borders, and the
phenomenon of very easy social relationships overseas amongst members of
the respective Diasaporas.
AMITA BATRA:
Professor, Centre for South Asian Studies, School of International Studies,
Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi.
SAARC and Economic
Integration in South Asia
Economic
cooperation and integration became a part of the SAARC work agenda when the
council of ministers of the member countries signed an agreement to form
the South Asian Preferential Trade Agreement (SAPTA) in April 1993. The
move was prompted by a desire of the South Asian economies to dismantle
trade barriers following unilateral trade liberalisation as part of the
systemic economic reforms initiated, first, in India, and later undertaken
by other economies of the region. The economic reforms set the tone for
both, a greater global integration of the South Asian economies as also
increased growth momentum in the region. In the subsequent two decades,
South Asia experienced high growth averaging over 5 per cent annually
accompanied by a rapid pace of trade integration with the global economy.
The rate of global trade integration of South Asia was the fastest among
all regions in the world between 2005 and 2007.
The Indian
economy emerged as the second fastest growing economy in the world. The
economic dynamism and rapid global trade integration did not, however,
translate into a higher level of economic integration among the South Asian
economies; and intra regional trade remained at a low of around 5 per cent
of the region’s total trade. The region, endowed with geographical, historical,
cultural and linguistic proximity- all parameters that make the member
economies the most natural trading partners, is today the least integrated
region in the world. The process of economic integration in South Asia is
marked by many contradictions. These are discussed below followed by the
compelling regional and global imperatives to accelerate the pace of
economic integration in South Asia. Finally, sub regionalism is
presented as a possible way forward for regional cooperation in South Asia.
T. P. SREENIVASAN: Former Ambassador to Austria, to Fiji, and, High Commissioner of
India to Kenya. Presently the Director General of the Kerala International
Centre in Thiruvananthapuram, Kerala.
Regional Cooperation in
South Asia: Present is depressing and the future is gloomy
SAARC has not really realised its full potential because conditions
do not exist in the neighbourhood for economic cooperation. Bilateral
disputes plague the association and, without mutual trust, no regional
organisation can function effectively. India has gained more by its
association with the ASEAN rather than with SAARC. Even the declarations of
SAARC are rarely implemented
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s vision of SAARC becoming a
corner stone of India’s foreign policy has already suffered a setback.
Pakistan raised bilateral issues on the floor of the United Nations even in
September 2014, thus violating the spirit of bilateralism and regional
cooperation. Other states in the region are also not ready yet to work in a
spirit of cooperation. In the meantime, SAARC can operate only on the basis
of the lowest common denominators among its members. India would continue
to improve its relations with each of its neighbours so that SAARC could
become a true regional organisation like the European Union or the ASEAN.
In the current situation in the Asia Pacific, characterised by rivalry
between the US and China, such a transformation may be hard to accomplish.
KANWAL SIBAL: Former Foreign Secretary of India, former Ambassador to Russia and
to France.
Pakistan at the heart of
SAARC’s failure
What of the future? Most importantly, unless Pakistan changes
course radically towards India, SAARC as SAARC will essentially limp along.
Even if India takes initiatives in the interests of the region, Pakistan
will stymie them as it will not want India’s ‘hegemony’ to be consolidated.
Pakistan’s attitude will not change unless it’s internal polity changes.
This is not likely to happen given the dynamics inside Pakistan and the
broader Islamic region with which it associates itself.
At the Kathmandu summit, India warned that regional integration
will proceed with all, or without some, which suggests that if Pakistan
does not cooperate, others can go ahead without it. If that happens, it will
mean, of course, the emasculation of the idea of SAARC. However, Pakistan
will not be easily isolated, as most other SAARC countries will seek to
keep it involved in order to balance India’s weight. Side-tracking Pakistan
will also mean that the integration of Afghanistan into SAARC will become
practically impossible. BIMSTEC, which groups all SAARC countries except
Pakistan and Maldives, provides an option for regional cooperation for
India and others, with the added advantage of providing a seamless link to
Southeast Asia through Myanmar and Thailand, the other two members of
BIMSTEC. The SAARC charter does provide for sub-regional cooperation, but
with the concurrence of the rest. This makes Pakistan’s role a major road
block.
SABITA HARICHANDAN: Associate Professor of Political Science, BJB Autonomous College,
Bhubaneswar, Odisha.
SAARC: Not a Forum for
Clearing Indo-Pak Distrust
SAARC is
not a forum for clearing Indo-Pak distrust; it stands for far greater
regional interests. No country should be allowed to be a spoiler of this
serious agenda. Being the two most important members of the regional
association, both India and Pakistan shoulder a special responsibility to
instil new life and vigour in regional cooperation and go beyond paying lip
service to it. Subramanian Swamy, the Chairman of
the Bharatiya Janata Party’s Strategic Affairs Committee, commented in The
Hindu on 25 November 2014, “Since India constitutes 70 per cent or more of
SAARC’s area and population, and has political conflicts with all its
neighbours, India has to redefine its role, from seeking reciprocity in
bilateral relations, to being prepared to go the extra mile in meeting the
aspirations of all other SAARC nations.”. The greater regional interests
should not be sacrificed at the altar of the intransigent attitudes of some
member nations of SAARC.
________________________________
ARTICLES
TALMIZ AHMED: Former Ambassador of India to Saudhi
Arabia, to the U.A.E, to Kuwait and Yemen.
India’s Energy Security
Challenges
The changing geopolitics of energy in favour of Asian countries,
the crucial dependence of the latter on West Asia for their energy
security, and the interest of the USA in sharing the responsibility for
regional security, these developments have thrown up new opportunities for
Asian countries to pursue shared interests that would bring the USA, other
Western powers, and the principal Asian powers - China, Japan, Korea and
India - in a new cooperative paradigm structured around the GCC countries,
Iran and Iraq.
The challenges in realizing this strategic paradigm would require
the principal regional players to give up their present postures of
confrontation and hostility, and engage with erstwhile rivals on the same
platform for dialogue, the establishment of confidence building measures,
and the addressing of issues that divide them in a free and frank
environment.
Before this happens, the four principal Asian countries would
themselves have to develop the habit of dialogue as well as the development
of consensus amongst themselves - a daunting task in itself since Asian
countries have little experience of strategic dialogue with each other on
Asian issues.
ABDUL NAFEY: Professor and Chairperson, Centre for Canadian, US and Latin
American Studies, School for International Studies, JNU, New Delhi.
The Shale Revolution: Its
Impact and Implications for India
Production of shale oil and gas had begun in North America around
2007; however, its full impact began to be felt only around 2011. Its
advent has been likened to that of the sighting of a ‘Black Swan’, an event
that is rare, unusual and unexpected, and which is transformational of the
ways in which the world lives and believes. Understandably, therefore, it
has come to be described as a ‘revolution’. Nearly every one concurs that
the shale revolution is to here stay. This essay examines two major issues
associated with the shale revolution which bear scholarly significance: (i) its meaning in terms of global energy security, and
the structural change that this revolution is bringing about in the global
balance of power, the prospects of economic development, and climate change
negotiations; and (ii) its impact and implications for India’s energy
security, besides whatever else it may hold in terms of geo-political and
economic opportunities.
ARENLA: Doctoral Candidate in the Centre for Indo-Pacific Studies, School
of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi.
India and the East Asia
Summit
As the EAS completes ten years of its existence this year, India
expects to enter into a more holistic cooperation with the EAS. Apart from
economic ties, greater cooperation on the challenges of human resource
development, renewable energy, transportation infrastructure, public health
and scientific research are some of the potential but crucial areas where
greater efforts from the stakeholders and respective governments are
required. For India, it may also imply that it needs to act fast and in a
comprehensive way, if it wishes to engage in the EAS forum to use it as a
part of a wider platform to cause a paradigm shift towards “Act East” from
its usual “Look East.”
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BOOK
REVIEWS
SAVITA PANDE: Professor of South Asia Studies, School of International Studies,
Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi.
T.V. Paul:
The Warrior State: Pakistan in the Contemporary World, (New Delhi, Random House, Pages 257; Price Rs 499.00
RAJEEV AGARWAL: Formerly Senior Fellow, Institute for Defence Studies and
Analyses, New Delhi
Vishal Chandra: The
Unfinished War in Afghanistan: 2001-2014,
New Delhi, Pentagon Press, Price: Rs. 1495
ANKIT KUMAR: Research
Associate, Centre for Air Power Studies, New Delhi
David
Brewster: India’s Ocean: The Story of India’s Bid for Regional
Leadership (New York: Routledge: 2014),
Pages: 244, Price: Rs. 7058.00.
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