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Vol 13,
No. 1 In the Press
Jan-Mar 2018
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DEBATE
"India-Canada
Relations: Present Reality & Future Directions"
The Canada-India
relationship has indeed taken a positive turn since Prime Minister Narendra
Modi’s visit to Canada in 2015. It was the first by an Indian Prime
Minister in about four decades.
While India and Canada
are members of the Commonwealth of Nations, robust democracies,
multicultural societies and have had very close cooperative ties, a sort of
bitterness had entered the relationship in the aftermath of India’s nuclear
test in 1974. Canada played a prominent role in promoting nuclear export
control rules against India. A Working relationship continued but the
mistrust level was high - until recently. However, today the two countries
have embarked upon a new path of bilateral cooperation in the civil nuclear
sector.
During Prime Minister
Narendra Modi’s visit to Canada in April 2015, both sides agreed to elevate
their bilateral relations to a strategic partnership. However, the
strategic content remains wafer thin. The ties essentially rest on 3Es - economy,
energy and education.
The just concluded visit
of Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to India (18-24 February 2018)
was expected to further boost bilateral relationship. The visit does not
seem to have produced the desired results.
The two countries need
to take a long-term view for safeguarding their mutual interests. What
should each side do?
PREM BUDHWAR: Ambassador Prem K.
Budhwar, served as India’s High Commissioner to Canada for nearly five years
from 1992 to 1997. He was commissioned by the Indian Council of World
Affairs to do a special study on Canada, and his book Canada-India:
Partners in Progress, was published in 2016.
India-Canada Relations: a Roller-Coaster Ride
RAJIV BHATIA: Ambassador
Rajiv Bhatia is a former Ambassador/High Commissioner to Kenya, Myanmar,
Mexico and South Africa. He had earlier served as India's Consul General in
Toronto (Canada). He is presently a Distinguished Fellow at Gateway House,
Mumbai.
India-Canada Relations
- Post-Trudeau Visit: the Road Ahead
VISHNU PRAKASH: Ambassador Vishnu
Prakash, a former Ambassador of India to Republic of Korea, a former
spokesperson, was till recently, India’s High Commissioner to Canada
Case for a Fresh Start with Canada
SHASHI U. TRIPATHI: Ambassador Shashi Uban
Tripathi is a former High Commissioner of India to Canada and a former
Secretary, Ministry of External affairs. She was earlier Indian High
Commissioner to Zimbabwe and Consul General of India at New York.
Steadying India-Canada Relations: Through Trust
and Confidence
ABDUL NAFEY and POOJA GOPAL: Professor
Abdul Nafey is Professor, Centre for Canadian, US & Latin American
Studies, School of International Studies, JNU; and Ms. Pooja Gopal is
Research Scholar in the same Centre.
India-Canada Relations: Convergences Outweigh
Mutual Differences
APARAJITA KASHYAP: Dr. Aprajita Kashyap is
an Assistant Professor at the Centre for Canadian, US and Latin American
Studies, School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New
Delhi.
India-Canada Relations: Environment and Climate
Change
SITAKANTA MISHRA: Dr Sitakanta Mishra is
Assistant Professor, Faculty of International Relations at the School of
Liberal Studies (SLS) of Pandit Deendayal Petroleum University (PDPU),
Gandhinagar, Gujarat.
India-Canada Nuclear Relations: From a Troubled
Past towards a Promising Future
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ARTICLES
PINAK R CHAKRAVARTY: A former secretary in the Ministry of External
Affairs, a former High Commissioner to Bangladesh and a former Ambassador
to Thailand. He is currently a Distinguished Fellow at the Delhi-based
Observer Research Foundation.
India's Changing
Global Priorities and the Role Of
Act East Policy
There is no appetite for any large scale conflict
in the current international order. There will be competition and
cooperation. World leaders meet frequently in a variety of global fora and
these frequent interactions help to defuse tensions. A China-centric
international order cannot be stable.
China has no history of being a global hegemon. China’s "Middle
Kingdom” mentality was regional, and limited to China’s periphery even in
sub-regions which have been absorbed in Chinese territory. Moreover,
China’s authoritarian state structure which precludes democratic decision
making and transparency is ill suited for a global role. China has no
history of creating and protecting an international order based on
maintaining public goods.
Thus, the current phase in the international order
will require India to navigate by hedging, band-wagoning, and forming
coalitions with like-minded powers to ensure that the international order moves
towards a multipolar configuration. One can call this approach “Flexible
Multipolarity”. Avoidance of conflict will certainly be a main pillar of
this policy for India. This will require building deterrence, both
conventional and non-conventional; the judicious management of our
periphery; going full speed ahead on domestic reforms, economic growth, job
creation, spreading skills; as well as maintaining a stable social order.
It is from domestic strength that we can build the sinews of our foreign policy
options.
DEEPAK BHOJWANI: Ambassador Deepak Bhojwani is a former
Ambassador of India to Colombia and
to Venezuela. He is the author of
Latin America, the Caribbean and India: Promise and Challenge, Pentagon
Press 2015.
India and
Latin America: The Way Forward
Indian diplomacy has been prominent this century,
leveraging an economy that has shed inhibitions and grown impressively.
Latin America however remains distant, geographically and conceptually.
Political relations are cordial but seldom ascend to levels of strategic
empathy. Both sides have deepened exchanges with almost all other regions
and international partners in greater measure than with each other.
Still, trade has grown over thirty percent
annually between 2000 and 2014. Latin American resources are an ideal fit
for Indian technology, industrial capacity, and markets. The deceleration,
since 2015, has as much to do with the global slowdown as with the lack of
a strategy and measures to consolidate an evidently complementary
relationship.
Relations have been predicated on bilateral
priorities. Political diversity, varying economic endowments, lack of
adequate human resources, and institutional underpinning, poor
connectivity, and language issues present challenges for Indian
stakeholders The Indian establishment needs to take a holistic view of its
interests in, and exchanges with, Latin America. This includes
collaboration in international forums, recognition of the importance of
regional integration within Latin America, as well as the linkages being
established by this region with other international players.
Latin American regimes have been focussed on
commodity exports and investment incentives apart from stray investments in
an India that offers promise for a region struggling to improve its
international bargaining power. A re-prioritisation of the relationship is
essential, and should be complemented by more discerning and energetic
diplomacy.
This paper outlines issues, priorities, and
impediments that define the relationship. It emphasises the need for both
sides to develop a realistic model, based on factual realities, that
enables India and its Latin American partners to forge a common strategy
and assume their rightful place in the new global order.
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BOOK REVIEWS
BHASWATI MUKHERJEE: Ambassador Bhaswati
Mukherjee, is a former Permanent Representative of India to UNESCO, Paris
and former Ambassador of India to the Netherlands.
Rajendra K
Jain (Ed), India, Europe and Pakistan (New Delhi,
2017, K W Publishers), Pages: 318, Price: Rs. 1,280.00.
FAZZUR RAHMAN SIDDIQUI: Dr. Fazzur
R. Siddiqui is a Research Fellow, Indian
Council of World Affairs, New Delhi
P. R.
Kumaraswamy, Squaring the Circle: Mahatma Gandhi and the Jewish
National Home (New Delhi, Knowledge World, 2017),
Pages: 234, Price: Rs. 920.00
RAJESH RAJAGOPALAN: Prof. Rajesh
Rajagopalan is Professor in International Politics, School of International
Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi.
Gurmeet
Kanwal, Sharpening the Arsenal: India's Evolving Nuclear Deterrence Policy, (Noida,
India, Harper Collins), Pages: 272, Price: Rs. 599.00
GIRIJESH PANT: Prof.
Girijesh Pant is a former Dean, School of International Studies. JNU;
Former Vice Chancellor, Doon University & GGD University
Gulshan Dietl, India and the Global Game of Gas Pipeline, (New York and London, Routledge,
2017), Price: Rs 695.00, Pages: 213
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COMPENDIUM
OF CONTRIBUTIONS
Published in Volume 12,
2017
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Vol 13,
No. 2 Under Preparation
Apr - Jun 2018
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DEBATE
"India in the Emerging Global Order:
The Next Decade"
India has always played
a global role since its independence. Inadequate economic development,
limited military capabilities, regional constraints posed by neighbouring
aggressors, and enormous domestic difficulties have not prevented India
from leading the Non-Aligned Movement, Group of 77, playing an active role
in the United Nations, and making its voice heard on all critical issues,
such as disarmament, North-South Dialogue, and various trade negotiations.
In other words, India
acted as a global player against all odds and obstructions. In the changed
circumstances of the post-Cold War era, the Non-Aligned Movement lost its
lustre and vigour, the North-South Dialogue got diluted, the Group of 77
remained just on paper, and the United Nations could play only a small role
in maintaining international security and peace in a unipolar world order.
As the unipolar world
order is now under tremendous stress with the relative decline of US
influence in world affairs, the considerable spread of Chinese influence
around the globe, the near collapse of the European Union as a unitary
actor in international politics, the rise and fall of ISIS in the Middle
East, and the new uncertainties in the Indo-Pacific region marked by
Chinese assertiveness and North Korean WMD proliferation, India has emerged
as a significant role player. Indeed, it could be said that it is on the
cusp of a major transition occurring in the global order.
Unlike in the recent
past, India is economically more robust, technologically more advanced, and
militarily more formidable. It has acquired recognition internationally as
a new global power. China today has monetary power, but India’s soft power
is unmatched. China shows no activism in containing terrorism, promoting
non-proliferation, combating drugs trafficking, and playing a leading role
to shape regional order anywhere in the world. At the same time, it appears
to be determined to challenge the US position anywhere and everywhere in
subtle and not-so-subtle ways. A sort of cold confrontation is on the rise
in US-China relations. On the other hand, Russia has shown guts, and has
acted fiercely to reassert its position as a global power. The rise of
Russia as an important player in Europe, Central Asia, and the Middle East
has irked the USA.
Under such circumstances,
India needs to think hard about charting out its diplomatic and political
course of action in order to play a constructive role on all major global
issues that directly or indirectly impact its interests.
What should India’s role
be in the coming decade? How should India balance its regional
preoccupations with global issues? What should be the extent of India’s
engagement in the other regions of the world? How should India manage its
relations with the other global powers? How should India deal with the
issues related to the global commons? How should India make itself more
secure? How should India make its economy well protected at the time of
rising economic nationalism? How should India handle the growing presence
of external actors in its immediate neighbourhood? What can India do to
become the dominant security provider in the Indian Ocean? What should be
the limits of India’s involvement in areas and issues that do not affect
its core interests?
The following six
experts in the field, have accepted our
invitation to comment on the above.. The above Debate Concept Note
and their views will be published as the 'Debate'
KANWAL SIBAL: Former Foreign Secretary of India, Former
Ambassador to France and to Russia.
ARVIND GUPTA: Director, Vivekananda International Foundation,
Former Deputy National Security Advisor, Former Director General, IDSA
SANJAY SINGH: former Secretary, Ministry of External Affairs,
and, Former Ambassador of India to Iran.
CHINTAMANI MAHAPATRA: Rector, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi,
and Professor for American Studies, School for International Studies,
Jawaharlal Nehru University, New
Delhi.
B. S. PRAKASH: former Ambassador of India to Brazil and to
Uganda and a former Consul General of India at San Francisco, USA.
SACHIN CHATURVEDI: Director General at the Research and Information
System for Developing Countries (RIS), a New Delhi
(The views expressed
by the authors are their own, and do not reflect the views of the Indian Foreign Affairs Journal, or
that of the Association of Indian Diplomats)
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ARTICLES
M. MATHESWARAN: Air Marshall M. Matheshwaran (Retd) is a Former Deputy Chief of the Integrated
Defence Staff.
Nuclear Stability in Asia and South Asia: Dynamics
of Fragile Stability
Nuclear weapons
technology and development have moved at significant pace in Asia over the
last year and a half. Missile and weapon tests over the last year have
brought the non-proliferation lobby to actively raise the alarm on the
spectre of a nuclear arms race unfolding in South Asia. The year of 2017
seems to have got the world's attention on the state of a fragile stability
in South Asia in particular.
However, while the
danger of a nuclear arms race in South Asia must not be ignored, it is
important to remember that the South Asian nuclear scenario is far more
complex. Very often the focus tends to be on India-Pakistan
conflict/relations, which is deeply flawed. Nuclear deterrence stability in
South Asia depends on the stability of complex triangular nuclear
deterrence dynamics between India, China, and Pakistan. China has, until
now, played a very successful strategic game of deception wherein it
projects an image of a power that strongly articulates international
non-proliferation norms while commenting on India's missile tests or on
North Korea's missile and nuclear antics.
It is quite evident
that China's extended deterrence for both Pakistan and North Korea is a
critical component of its Asian nuclear strategy. Early in 2017, Pakistan
tested its MIRV (multiple independently targeted re-entry vehicles) on a
new land-based missile. This was preceded by the first successful test of
its 450 km range submarine launched cruise missile (SLCM). Both these
capabilities provide significant second and third strike capability to
Pakistan. But underlying these demonstrations is China's role in providing
active technological support to Pakistan's nuclear capability.
Pakistan has unveiled
its new strategy called "full spectrum deterrence", which
accentuates its first use policy with the use of tactical nuclear weapons
(TNW), backed by its second and third strike capability. India's
development of BMD is cited as the trigger for Pakistan's focus on MIRV and
SLCM. In reality, however, it is China's extended deterrence strategy that
is in play, where it seeks keep India bottled up with Pakistan on nuclear
parity.
A similar strategy is
evident in its use of North Korea against Japan and the USA.
India's recent Agni-V
test may be the beginning of an overt India-China nuclear deterrent
calculus.
SURESH KUMAR GOEL: Ambassador S. K. Goel is a former Ambassador of
India to Laos and a former Director General of ICCR, New Delhi.
United
Nations Council Reforms - Myth or Reality
YOGENDRA KUMAR: Ambassador Yogendra Kumar is a former Ambassador
of India to the Philippines. He was, earlier on the Faculty of the National
Defence College, New Delhi.
MILAN series of Naval Exercises -
2018 (Subject - yet to be
titled)
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BOOK REVIEWS
B. S. PRAKASH: Ambassador B. S. Prakash is a former Ambassador of
India to Brazil and to Uganda and a former Consul General of India at San
Francisco, USA.
Alyssa Ayres, Our Time Has Come: How India is
Making Its Place in the World, (OUP USA, Mar 2018), Pages:
360, Price: 695.00
ERIC GONSALVES: Ambassador Eric Gonsalves is a
Former Secretary, Ministry of External Affairs and a Former Ambassador to
Japan and to Belgium
Tansen Sen, India, China, and the World: A Connected History, (Maryland, United States, 2017, Rowman & Littlefield), ), Pages: 560
(HC), Price: Rs. 2,985.00
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